Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin told the Greater Greer Chamber on Monday that inflation is still too high. Greenville County's jobless rate fell to 3.2%.
The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond brought his read on the U.S. economy to Greer on Monday. Tom Barkin spoke to the Greater Greer Chamber of Commerce at Greer City Hall.
His message: businesses and households are still spending, and inflation is “stubbornly elevated.” The Richmond Fed published the full text of his remarks, “The Rooms Driving the Economy”. Barkin said the views were his own and not those of anyone else on the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed body that sets interest rates.
The Richmond Fed covers the Fifth District, which includes South Carolina. Barkin closed by asking the Greer audience to tell him “what’s happening in your corner of the Fifth District.”
What Barkin said
He built the speech around three “rooms” where economic decisions get made.
The boardroom. Company earnings have been strong, he said, so firms keep investing and are not laying people off. He cited:
- business investment up 12.7% in the third quarter
- initial unemployment claims at their lowest in more than 55 years
- “broad-based cost pressures,” including health insurance, gas and diesel, trucking, ocean freight and interest rates
The kitchen. Lower-income households are stretched, he said. Inflation has been above the Fed’s 2% target for more than five years. The Fed’s preferred measure, PCE inflation, was 3.6% in September, or 3.1% without food and energy.
He said families are trading down to store brands, buying used instead of new and turning to food banks. He quoted a roofer who called the shift from roof replacements to repairs “patch and pray.”
The airport lounge. Wealthier households have seen their stocks and homes gain value and are still spending, he said. More than 40% of upper-income consumers expect to spend as usual on items with big price increases. That is more than double the share of lower-income consumers, according to the University of Michigan survey he cited.
His view on interest rates
Barkin did not say what the Fed should do at its next meeting. He said firms are now trying to pass on cost increases they had absorbed, and that “the risk lies on the inflation side” if the economy stays on its current path.
“Today, with demand healthy and inflation stubbornly elevated, the appropriate direction of monetary policy is relatively straightforward,” Barkin said. “However, risks to the demand outlook remain easy to envision. Because of that, it is wise to move policy with care.”
He named artificial intelligence as the biggest risk either way. If AI underdelivers, he said, investment and stock prices could fall. If it overdelivers, it could displace more workers than expected.
How Greenville County compares
Barkin said national unemployment was 4.1% in October. Greenville County’s rate is lower.
The county’s unemployment rate was 3.2% in September, down from 4.0% a year earlier, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The September figure is preliminary. County rates are not seasonally adjusted, so they rise and fall with the time of year. The rate peaked at 4.8% in January and February.
| Month | Greenville County unemployment rate |
|---|---|
| September 2025 | 4.0% |
| October 2025 | not published |
| November 2025 | 4.3% |
| December 2025 | 4.2% |
| January 2026 | 4.8% |
| February 2026 | 4.8% |
| March 2026 | 3.7% |
| April 2026 | 3.2% |
| May 2026 | 3.4% |
| June 2026 | 3.7% |
| July 2026 | 3.5% |
| August 2026 | 3.7% |
| September 2026 | 3.2% (preliminary) |
The bureau published no October 2025 figure because of the 2025 lapse in federal funding.
Home values in Greer have been flat. Zillow’s index puts the typical Greer home at $349,020 in September, up 1.1% from $345,062 a year earlier, according to Zillow Research. Our Greer home prices page tracks the index each month.
Barkin’s list of rising costs included trucking and ocean freight. Both run through Greer at SC Ports’ inland rail terminal, where Isuzu’s first container arrived in October.
What it means for you
- Prices. The Fed official who covers South Carolina expects cost pressure to continue. He said firms are still trying to pass on increases.
- Interest rates. Barkin gave no signal of a quick move. He said the Fed should “move policy with care.”
- Jobs. Greenville County’s jobless rate is below the national rate and lower than a year ago.
- Your input. Barkin asked local businesses to tell the Richmond Fed what they are seeing. The bank’s contact details are on richmondfed.org.
Have your say